Comparison of time trend- and precipitation-informed models for assessing design discharges in variable climate

Šraj, Mojca (author), Bezak, Nejc (author)

Estimation of reliable design discharges under variable climate is a key challenge for today%s engineers. Therefore, researchers are intensively exploring different alternative approaches in order to improve standard methods for design discharge estimation. Paper investigates the performance of time-invariant, time trend- and precipitation-informed models based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for 31 Slovenian discharge gauging stations with data availability from 1961 until 2015. Different rainfall durations are used as covariates in the case of precipitation-informed models. The selected catchments are located in different climate regions and characterized by five flow regimes. The results indicate that in most cases precipitation-informed models gave better fit to the measured data comparing to time-invariant and time trend-informed models. Relative differences in the design discharge estimations associated with 10- and 100-year return periods using time trend- and precipitation-informed models compared to time-invariant model were up to 60%. Additionally, the results indicate that identified best-fitting model of individual gauging station can to some extent be related to its flow regime.

• Language: English
• Keywords: flood change attribution, trends, flood frequency analysis, return period, design discharge, climate variability
• Work type: Scientific work
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Year: 2020
• Number of pages: Str. 1-10
• Numbering: Letn. 589
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-120994
• UDC: 556
• ISSN on article: 0022-1694
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125374
• COBISS.SI-ID: 24642819
• Publication date in RUL: 28.09.2020

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Journal of hydrology
• Shortened title: J. hydrol.
• Publisher: Elsevier
• ISSN: 0022-1694
• COBISS.SI-ID: 25750784

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: poplave in spremembe, trendi, verjetnostne analize, povratne dobe, projektni pretoki, klimatska spremenljivost

Projects

• Funder: ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
• Project number: P2-0180
• Name: Vodarstvo in geotehnika: orodja in metode za analize in simulacije procesov ter razvoj tehnologij