Investigation of rain-on-snow floods under climate change

Sezen, Cenk (author), Šraj, Mojca (author), Medved, Anže (author), Bezak, Nejc (author)

Rain-on-snow (ROS) floods can cause economic damage and endanger human lives due to the compound effect of rainfall and snowmelt, especially under climate change. In this study, possible future changes of seasonality, magnitude and frequency characteristics of ROS floods were investigated for the selected catchments in Slovenia, Europe. For this purpose, five global/regional climate models (GCM/RCM) combinations were applied using the RCP4.5 climate scenario for the period 1981-2100. To determine ROS floods characteristics in the future, a lumped conceptual hydrological model Génie Rural à 6 paramètres Journalier (GR6J) with snow module CemaNeige was applied. The results indicate that the number of ROS floods could increase in the future. Moreover, also the magnitudes of extreme ROS floods could increase, while a slight decrease in the median values of ROS flood magnitudes was observed. The strength of seasonality for a high-altitude catchment could decrease in the future. A slight shift in the average ROS floods timing could be expected. Furthermore, a catchment located in a temperate continental climate could have a different response to the climate change impact in comparison to a catchment located in a mountain climate with alpine characteristics. Additionally, differences among investigated climate models show a large variability.

• Language: English
• Keywords: rain-on-snow floods, climate change, hydrological modelling, peak discharges, lumped model, compound events
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2020
• Number of pages: 12 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 10, iss. 4, art. 1242
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-114082
• UDC: 556.5(497.4)
• ISSN on article: 2076-3417
• DOI: 10.3390/app10041242
• COBISS.SI-ID: 9083745
• Publication date in RUL: 13.02.2020

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Applied sciences
• Shortened title: Appl. sci.
• Publisher: MDPI
• ISSN: 2076-3417
• COBISS.SI-ID: 522979353

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
• Licensing start date: 12.02.2020

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: hidrologija, poplave, klimatske spremembe, hidrološko modeliranje, konice pretokov, enoviti modeli, sestavljeni dogodki