The effect of population aging on heating energy demand on national level : a case study of Slovenia

Lampret, Žiga (author), Krese, Gorazd (author), Prek, Matjaž (author)

Residential energy demands are expected to change significantly in the future with increasing electrification, energy efficiency, and improved comfort as well as climate change. While many studies have been performed into how the aforementioned influential factors could affect the energy needs of the forthcoming generations, far less are present for how population aging affects the future heating demand. The latter is particularly relevant for Europe and Slovenia as declining fertility rates and lengthening life spans give rise to the increasing ratio of the elderly. In this paper, the future residential space and water heating energy demands of the aging society in Slovenia, using a sample of geographically dispersed nursing homes as a proxy, are estimated. The results are compared against the latest EU reference scenario until 2050, whereby the adjusted estimates differ by up to 9.6 %. Thus, the study highlights the need for energy policy to be further refined and redefined to link the energy performance requirements of buildings to specific consumption characteristics of the elderly.

• Language: English
• Keywords: energy forecasting, residential energy demand, space heating, domestic hot water, ageing society, base temperature
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FS - Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2019
• Number of pages: Str. 701-708
• Numbering: Vol. 65, no. 11/12
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-113742
• UDC: 620.9:697:628.1(045)
• ISSN on article: 0039-2480
• DOI: 10.5545/sv-jme.2019.6394
• COBISS.SI-ID: 16944923
• Publication date in RUL: 30.01.2020

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Strojniški vestnik
• Shortened title: Stroj. vestn.
• Publisher: Zveza strojnih inženirjev in tehnikov Slovenije [etc.], = Association of Mechanical Engineers and Technicians of Slovenia [etc.
• ISSN: 0039-2480
• COBISS.SI-ID: 762116

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Title: Vpliv staranja prebivalstva na potrebe po toploti na nacionalni ravni : študija primera Slovenije
• Keywords: napovedovanje rabe energije, raba energije v gospodinjstvih, ogrevanje prostorov, sanitarna topla voda, staranje družbe, bazna temperatura