Kriteriji in indikatorji za analizo primernosti gospodarske rabe vode : doktorska disertacija

Šantl, Sašo (author), Steinman, Franc (mentor)

V nalogi je na podlagi podanih izhodišč in usmeritev podrobno predstavljen razvoj večkriterijske metode (metoda MCA) za analizo in določanje primernosti obravnavanih območij ali porečij za gospodarske rabe vode. Poudarek je na hidroenergetski rabi vode, ki je ena od najbolj aktualnih in tudi navzkrižnih s cilji doseganja dobrega stanja voda. Metoda MCA kot novost na tem področju vključuje postopek umerjanja vrednosti iskanih modelnih parametrov (modelnih spremenljivk) metode MCA. Umerjanje temelji na izboru podatkov za umerjanje, ki predstavljajo odseke ali območja, ki so primerni in neprimerni za analizirano vrsto gospodarske rabe vode, ter na izboru ciljne funkcije, s katero se ocenjuje uspešnost določenega seta izbranih vrednosti za iskane modelne parametre. Ker je lahko prostor rešitev velik, metoda predvideva tudi uporabo orodij za iskanje optimalnih rešitev ali blizu optimalnim rešitvam, kot so na primer genetski algoritmi. Razvita metoda MCA je uporabljena na treh vodotokih, kjer se je izkazalo, da je za učinkovito določitev odsekov vodotokov glede primernosti za hidroenergetsko rabo potrebno manj merodajnih indikatorjev, kot se je na začetku predvidevalo. Za ovrednotenje uspešnosti metode je v nadaljevanju izvedena primerjalna analiza, ki vključuje primere z različnimi izhodišči, kot so drugačen način določitve vrednosti modelnih spremenljivk, drugačna izbira podatkov za umerjanje ter drugačen način vrednotenja in ocenjevanja variant po določenem indikatorju. Dodatno je bila izvedena še primerjalna analiza na drugem vodotoku, na katerem so se primerjali rezultati z upoštevanjem umerjenih vrednosti modelnih spremenljivk z rezultati, ki so bili na tem vodotoku predhodno že pridobljeni in so upoštevali vrednosti modelnih spremenljivk, ki so bile določene na podlagi strokovne presoje s sodelovanjem deležnikov. V zaključku so podane razprava o glavnih ugotovitvah in uspešnosti razvite metode MCA, potrditev delovnih hipotez ter potreba po dodatni potrditvi in nadaljnjem delu.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: grajeno okolje, raba voda, ekološko stanje, hidroenergetika, kriteriji, indikatorji, večkriterijska analiza, primernost, umerjanje, genetski algoritmi
• Work type: Doctoral dissertation
• Typology: 2.08 - Doctoral Dissertation
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publisher: [S. Šantl]
• Year: 2018
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-100910
• UDC: 502/504:627.8.09(043)
• COBISS.SI-ID: 8396385
• Publication date in RUL: 20.04.2018

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Criteria and indicators for suitability analysis of economic water uses : doctoral dissertation

Abstract

On the basis of the specified starting points and guidelines, the thesis presents in detail a development of a multi-criteria method (the MCA method) for analysing and determining the suitability of the examined areas or catchments for economic use of water. The emphasis is on hydropower use of water, which is one of the most topical uses, but also one which conflicts the most with the objectives of achieving good water status. As a novelty in this field, the MCA method comprises the process of calibrating the values of the searched model parameters (model variables) of the MCA method. The calibration is based on the selection of calibration data representing sections or areas that are suitable and unsuitable for the analysed type of economic water use, as well as on the selection of the objective function which is used to evaluate the performance of a particular set of selected values for the searched model parameters. Due to a large solution space, the method also foresees the use of tools for searching optimal or near-optimal solutions, such as genetic algorithms. The developed MCA method was applied to three watercourses, where it appeared that for efficient determination of watercourse sections regarding their suitability for hydropower use fewer relevant indicators were required than initially assumed. To evaluate the method performance, a comparative analysis is further carried out, which includes examples with different starting points, such as a different method of determining the values of model variables, different selection of calibration data and a different method for evaluating and scoring of variants by a given indicator. In addition a comparative analysis was also performed on other watercourse where results got by application of calibrated values of model variables were compared with results got by application of values of model variables which were previously defined by expert judgement and stakeholders’ involvement. The conclusion comprises a discussion on main findings and performance of developed MCA method, confirmation of working hypotheses and establishes the need for additional confirmation and further work.

• Keywords: building environment, water resources use, ecological status, hydropower, criteria, indicators, multiple criteria analysis, suitability, calibration, genetic algorithms