izpis_h1_title_alt

Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia
Potočnik, Primož (Avtor), Thaler, Marko (Avtor), Govekar, Edvard (Avtor), Grabec, Igor (Avtor), Poredoš, Alojz (Avtor)

URLURL - Predstavitvena datoteka, za dostop obiščite http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.03.001 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu

Izvleček
Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledgeabout expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combinespast energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that arethe basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systemsć cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company.

Jezik:Angleški jezik
Ključne besede:naravni plini, poraba plina, predvidevanje, riziki, forecasting, risk, natural gas
Vrsta gradiva:Delo ni kategorizirano (r6)
Tipologija:1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
Organizacija:FS - Fakulteta za strojništvo
Leto izida:2007
Št. strani:str. 4271-4282
Številčenje:Letn. 35, št. 8
UDK:662.76:351.824.11
ISSN pri članku:0301-4215
COBISS.SI-ID:10005531 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
Število ogledov:707
Število prenosov:266
Metapodatki:XML RDF-CHPDL DC-XML DC-RDF
 
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Gradivo je del revije

Naslov:Energy policy
Skrajšan naslov:Energy policy
Založnik:IPC Science and Technology Press Ltd
ISSN:0301-4215
COBISS.SI-ID:7272453 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu

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