Prediction of energy consumption and risk of excess demand in a distribution system
Thaler, Marko (Avtor), Grabec, Igor (Avtor), Poredoš, Alojz (Avtor)

 URL - Predstavitvena datoteka, za dostop obiščite http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2005.02.066

Izvleček
An empirical model for prediction of energy consumption in a distribution system is described. The model resembles a normalized radial basis function neural network whose neurons contain prototype joint data about the consumption process and the environment. A set of prototype patterns of consumption and environmental variables is formed from a record of a multi-component time series by a self-organized process. Prediction of energy consumption is performed by a conditional average estimator based upon known prototype patterns and given future values of environmental variables. Importance of these variables for the prediction is determined by a genetic algorithm. Prediction performance of the model is tested on a one-year-long consumption record of a gas distribution system. Prediction error is determined by the difference between predicted and actually observed consumption. Its value depends on time and amounts to a few percent of the actual consumption. The probability distribution of prediction error is estimated from a properly selected time interval of prediction. This distribution can be used to estimate the risk of energy demand beyond some prescribed value. For an optimization of the distribution process, a cost function that includes operation and control costs of a distribution system aswell as penalties related to excess energy demand is proposed. Its minimum corresponds to an economically optimal energy distribution.

Jezik: Angleški jezik energy consumption prediction, self-organisation, conditional average, genetic algorithm, risk of exces demand Delo ni kategorizirano (r6) 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek FS - Fakulteta za strojništvo 2005 str. 46-53 Letn. 355, Št. 1 004.8:620.9:621.322 0378-4371 8407835 338 162 (0 glasov) Ocenjevanje je dovoljeno samo prijavljenim uporabnikom.

## Gradivo je del revije

Naslov: Physica Physica, A North-Holland 0378-4371 3270415

## Komentarji

Dodaj komentar

Za komentiranje se morate prijaviti.

Komentarji (0)
 0 - 0 / 0 Ni komentarjev!

Nazaj