izpis_h1_title_alt

Prediction of energy consumption and risk of excess demand in a distribution system
Thaler, Marko (Avtor), Grabec, Igor (Avtor), Poredoš, Alojz (Avtor)

URLURL - Predstavitvena datoteka, za dostop obiščite http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2005.02.066 Novo okno

Izvleček
An empirical model for prediction of energy consumption in a distribution system is described. The model resembles a normalized radial basis function neural network whose neurons contain prototype joint data about the consumption process and the environment. A set of prototype patterns of consumption and environmental variables is formed from a record of a multi-component time series by a self-organized process. Prediction of energy consumption is performed by a conditional average estimator based upon known prototype patterns and given future values of environmental variables. Importance of these variables for the prediction is determined by a genetic algorithm. Prediction performance of the model is tested on a one-year-long consumption record of a gas distribution system. Prediction error is determined by the difference between predicted and actually observed consumption. Its value depends on time and amounts to a few percent of the actual consumption. The probability distribution of prediction error is estimated from a properly selected time interval of prediction. This distribution can be used to estimate the risk of energy demand beyond some prescribed value. For an optimization of the distribution process, a cost function that includes operation and control costs of a distribution system aswell as penalties related to excess energy demand is proposed. Its minimum corresponds to an economically optimal energy distribution.

Jezik:Angleški jezik
Ključne besede:energy consumption prediction, self-organisation, conditional average, genetic algorithm, risk of exces demand
Vrsta gradiva:Delo ni kategorizirano (r6)
Tipologija:1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
Organizacija:FS - Fakulteta za strojništvo
Leto izida:2005
Št. strani:str. 46-53
Številčenje:Letn. 355, Št. 1
UDK:004.8:620.9:621.322
ISSN pri članku:0378-4371
COBISS.SI-ID:8407835 Povezava se odpre v novem oknu
Število ogledov:338
Število prenosov:162
Metapodatki:XML RDF-CHPDL DC-XML DC-RDF
 
Skupna ocena:(0 glasov)
Vaša ocena:Ocenjevanje je dovoljeno samo prijavljenim uporabnikom.
:
Objavi na: Bookmark and Share

Gradivo je del revije

Naslov:Physica
Skrajšan naslov:Physica, A
Založnik:North-Holland
ISSN:0378-4371
COBISS.SI-ID:3270415 Novo okno

Podobna dela

Podobna dela v RUL:
Podobna dela v drugih slovenskih zbirkah:

Komentarji

Dodaj komentar

Za komentiranje se morate prijaviti.

Komentarji (0)
0 - 0 / 0
 
Ni komentarjev!

Nazaj