Modeling aggregate use of Fund resources : analytical approaches and medium-term projections
Ghosh, Atish R. (Author)

URLURL - Presentation file, Visit http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp0770.pdf New window

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporaryor a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to declinesharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000-05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006-10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming aweaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.

Keywords:IMF, sredstva, krediti, dolgovi, časovne vrste, simulacija, modeli, IMF, assets, credit, debts, time series, simulation, models
Work type:Statistics (i)
Organization:EF - Faculty of Economics
Publisher:International Monetary Fund
Number of pages:44 str.
COBISS.SI-ID:17271270 Link is opened in a new window
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