This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporaryor a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to declinesharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000-05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006-10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming aweaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.
|Keywords:||IMF, sredstva, krediti, dolgovi, časovne vrste, simulacija, modeli, IMF, assets, credit, debts, time series, simulation, models|
|Work type:||Statistics (i)|
|Organization:||EF - Faculty of Economics|
|Publisher:||International Monetary Fund|
|Number of pages:||44 str.|
|Average score:||(0 votes)|
|Your score:||Voting is allowed only to logged in users.|