20.500.12556/RUL-188841 Vrednotenje scenarijev razvoja slovenskega elektroenergetskega sistema z optimizacijskim orodjem ekonomskega dispečiranja Evaluation of development scenarios for the Slovenian power system using an economic dispatch optimization tool Magistrska naloga obravnava dolgoročni razvoj elektroenergetskega sistema Slovenije do leta 2050. Zaradi predvidenega prenehanja obratovanja TEŠ 6, izteka projektne življenjske dobe NEK ter pričakovane rasti končne rabe električne energije zaradi elektrifikacije prometa, ogrevanja in drugih sektorjev je ključno vprašanje prihodnje usmeritve slovenske elektroenergetike. Namen naloge je bil objektivno ovrednotiti različne scenarije razvoja proizvodnih zmogljivosti ter opredeliti njihove ekonomske, okoljske, samooskrbne in sistemske učinke. Za potrebe analize je bil razvit matematični model ekonomskega dispečiranja. Model na urni časovni ravni simulira obratovanje proizvodnih enot, pokrivanje odjema, čezmejno izmenjavo električne energije in presežke ter primanjkljaje proizvodnje. V analizi so bili uporabljeni tehnični, obratovalni in ekonomski podatki proizvodnih enot, ter letni urni profili tehnologij, ki jih ni mogoče dispečirati, med katerimi so sončne in vetrne elektrarne, male hidroelektrarne ter elektrarne na bioplin in biomaso. Upoštevani so bili tudi baterijski hranilniki električne energije, odjem za proizvodnjo vodika, časovni profili čezmejnih prenosnih zmogljivosti, tržnih cen električne energije in hidrologije ter projekcije končne rabe električne energije. Na podlagi izhodišč Nacionalnega energetskega in podnebnega načrta ter lastnih projekcij razvoja tehnologij so bili oblikovani različni razvojni scenariji, kot so scenariji obstoječih ukrepov, korigiran scenarij dodatnih ukrepov z jedrsko energijo, korigiran scenarij dodatnih ukrepov z obnovljivimi viri, scenarij nižje prožnosti z malimi modularnimi reaktorji in scenarij visoke prožnosti brez JEK2. Scenariji so bili ovrednoteni z ekonomskimi, okoljskimi, samooskrbnimi in sistemskimi kazalniki. Rezultati kažejo, da scenarij obstoječih ukrepov, ki ne predvideva novih pomembnejših proizvodnih zmogljivosti, dosega najslabše rezultate in za slovenski sistem pomeni visoko uvozno odvisnost. Najvišjo skupno oceno je dosegel korigiran scenarij dodatnih ukrepov z jedrsko energijo, ki temelji na novih jedrskih zmogljivostih ob podpori obnovljivih virov energije, hidroelektrarn, baterijskih hranilnikov in drugih nizkoogljičnih tehnologij. Jedrski scenariji dosegajo najboljše rezultate pri sistemskih kazalnikih in samooskrbi, vendar so povezani z višjimi stroški. Scenariji z večjim deležem sončnih elektrarn in baterijskih hranilnikov so ekonomsko ugodnejši ter dosegajo dobre okoljske rezultate, vendar imajo praviloma slabše sistemske kazalnike. Rezultati hkrati potrjujejo, da lahko obnovljivi viri energije in hranilniki ob zadostnih inštaliranih zmogljivostih pomembno prispevajo k pokrivanju domače porabe električne energije. Razvita metodologija omogoča hitro preverjanje novih predpostavk, pripravo dodatnih scenarijev in izvedbo občutljivostnih analiz. Predstavlja strokovno podlago za nadaljnje raziskave in podporo odločanju o prihodnjem razvoju slovenske elektroenergetike. This master’s thesis examines the long-term development of Slovenia’s electric power system through 2050. Given the anticipated decommissioning of the coal-fired thermal power plant TEŠ 6, the expiration of the nuclear power plant NEK’s lifetime, and the expected growth in final electricity consumption due to the electrification of transportation, heating, and other sectors, the key issue is the future direction of Slovenia’s electricity sector. The purpose of the thesis was to objectively evaluate various scenarios for the development of production capacity and to identify their economic, environmental, self-sufficiency, and systemic impacts. A mathematical model of economic dispatch was developed for the purposes of this analysis. The model simulates, on an hourly time scale, the operation of generation units, the meeting of demand, cross-border transmission capacities, and excess or shortfall of electricity generation. The analysis utilized technical, operational, and economic data from generation units, as well as annual hourly profiles of non-dispatchable technologies, including solar and wind power plants, small hydropower plants, and biogas and biomass power plants. Battery energy storage systems, electricity consumption for hydrogen production, time profiles of cross-border transmission capacities, market prices for electricity, hydrological data, and projections of final electricity consumption were also taken into account. Based on the Slovenian National Energy and Climate Plan and our own projections of technological development, the following development scenarios were created: a scenario of existing measures, an adjusted scenario of additional measures involving nuclear energy, an adjusted scenario of additional measures involving renewable energy sources, a lower-flexibility scenario with small modular reactors and a high-flexibility scenario without JEK2. The scenarios were evaluated using economic, environmental, self-sufficiency, and system indicators. The results show that the existing measures scenario, which does not envisage any significant new generation capacity, yields the worst results and entails high import dependence. The highest overall rating was achieved by the adjusted scenario of additional measures involving nuclear energy, which is based on new nuclear capacity supported by renewable energy sources, hydroelectric power plants, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. Nuclear scenarios achieve the best results in terms of system indicators and self-sufficiency but are associated with higher costs. Scenarios with a higher share of solar power plants and battery storage systems are more economically favourable and achieve good environmental results but generally have poorer system indicators. At the same time, the results confirm that, with sufficient installed capacity, renewable energy sources and storage systems can make a significant contribution to meeting domestic electricity demand. The methodology developed enables rapid testing of new assumptions, the preparation of additional scenarios, and the conduct of sensitivity analyses. It provides a technical foundation for further research and supports decision-making regarding the future development of Slovenia’s electric power sector. ekonomsko dispečiranje MILP NEPN baterijski hranilniki JEK2 optimizacija elektroenergetskega sistema obnovljivi viri električna vozila toplotne črpalke sončne elektrarne hidrologija trg električne energije economic dispatch MILP NEPN battery storage systems JEK2 power system optimization renewable energy sources electric vehicles heat pumps solar power plants hydrology electricity market true false false Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Magistrsko delo/naloga 2026-09-29 10:10:03 2026-09-29 10:10:17 2026-09-30 04:29:19 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 1970-01-01 63332 Dolinar_Tomaz_-_Vrednotenje_scenarijev_razvoja_slovenskega_elektroenergetskega_sistema_z_optimiz.pdf Dolinar_Tomaz_-_Vrednotenje_scenarijev_razvoja_slovenskega_elektroenergetskega_sistema_z_optimiz.pdf 1 089993C02157009198FBDF235EC0DF45 bdbe646ef8625353996d3482a7b4cf4c879c62b07b4b51e5eed062e85e2d1ad3 1b8ebff2-bbdd-11f1-8bc5-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=249202 Fakulteta za elektrotehniko 0 0 0