20.500.12556/RUL-188460 Ranljivost vira pitne vode Brestovica na podnebne spremembe magistrsko delo Vulnerability of the Brestovica drinking water source to climate change master's thesis Podnebne spremembe vplivajo na količinsko in kakovostno stanje vodnih virov ter s tem na zanesljivost oskrbe prebivalstva s pitno vodo. Namen magistrske naloge je oceniti ranljivost vodnega vira Brestovica na podnebne spremembe ter opredeliti ključne dejavnike, ki vplivajo na njegovo dolgoročno razpoložljivost. Vodni vir Brestovica je del čezmejnega kraškega vodonosnega sistema Klasičnega krasa, za katerega so značilni visoka prepustnost karbonatnih kamnin, hitro napajanje in hiter pretok podzemne vode skozi kraške strukture. V nalogi je analizirano obstoječe stanje podnebja na območju Brestovice na podlagi podatkov meteorološke postaje Tomaj–Godnje ter ocenjenih trendov temperatur zraka, padavin, evapotranspiracije in vodne bilance. Za oceno prihodnjih sprememb so uporabljene podnebne projekcije za obdobje 2041–2070 po scenariju RCP4.5 ter za obdobje 2071–2100 po scenarijih RCP4.5 in RCP8.5. Vodna bilanca in napajanje podzemne vode vodonosnika sta ocenjena z uporabo hidrološkega modela GROWA- SI. V okviru analize ranljivosti vodonosnika Brestovica so obravnavani kazalci podnebne nevarnosti, kazalniki izpostavljenosti in občutljivosti vodnega vira na podnebne spremembe ter njegovo obstoječe količinsko in kemijsko stanje, raba, varovanje ter sposobnost prilagajanja. Rezultati kažejo, da bodo podnebne spremembe pomembno vplivale predvsem na sezonsko razpoložljivost podzemne vode v viru pitne vode Brestovica. Projekcije kažejo povečanje temperature zraka in evapotranspiracije ter zmanjšanje razpoložljivosti podzemne vode za napajanje vodonosnika v poletnem obdobju, zaradi česar se povečuje občutljivost vodnega vira. Analiza odziva podzemne vode na padavine je pokazala hitro odzivnost kraškega vodonosnika, za katero so značilni hitri dvigi in upadi gladine podzemne vode ter razmeroma majhna retencijska sposobnost. V referenčnem obdobju sta bila ranljivost in tveganje ocenjena kot zmerna, v vseh obravnavanih prihodnjih scenarijih pa kot visoka. Rezultati kažejo, da bo za zmanjšanje prihodnje ranljivosti pomembno izvajanje prilagoditvenih ukrepov, predvsem na področju učinkovitejšega upravljanja vodnih virov, zmanjševanja izgub v vodovodnem omrežju, zagotavljanja rezervnih vodnih virov ter prilagajanja porabe razpoložljivim količinam vode. Climate change affects the quantitative and qualitative status of water resources and, consequently, the reliability of drinking water supply. The aim of this master’s thesis is to assess the vulnerability of the Brestovica water source to climate change and to identify the key factors affecting its long-term water availability. The Brestovica water source is part of the transboundary karst aquifer system of the Classical Karst, which is characterised by the high permeability of carbonate rocks, rapid recharge, and rapid groundwater flow through karst structures. The thesis analyses the current climate conditions in the Brestovica area based on data from the Tomaj–Godnje meteorological station, including trends in air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water balance. Future changes are assessed using climate projections for the period 2041–2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario and for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The water balance and groundwater recharge of the aquifer are assessed using the GROWA-SI hydrological model. The vulnerability assessment of the Brestovica aquifer considers climate hazard indicators, exposure and sensitivity indicators, the existing quantitative and chemical status of the water source, its use and protection, and its adaptive capacity. The results show that climate change will have a significant impact primarily on the seasonal availability of groundwater at the Brestovica drinking water source. The projections indicate an increase in air temperature and evapotranspiration, as well as a decrease in groundwater availability for aquifer recharge during the summer period, leading to increased sensitivity of the water source. Analysis of groundwater response to precipitation showed a rapid response of the karst aquifer, characterised by rapid rises and declines in groundwater levels and relatively low water retention capacity. In the reference period, both vulnerability and risk were assessed as moderate, while they were assessed as high under all future scenarios considered. The results indicate that implementation of adaptation measures will be important for reducing future vulnerability, particularly through more effective water resource management, reduction of water losses in the distribution network, provision of alternative water sources, and adjustment of water consumption to available quantities. podnebne spremembe vodni vir Brestovica kraški vodonosnik ranljivost podzemna voda climate change Brestovica water source karst aquifer vulnerability groundwater true false false M. Štern Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Magistrsko delo/naloga 2026-09-23 09:00:09 2026-09-23 09:00:30 2026-10-22 09:56:22 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 Ljubljana 0 Ljubljana XVI, 67 str. 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 55 117665 302022659 31507.pdf 31507.pdf 1 7FBCE70B1E34DB3C7FD07BC28ABA7BA4 8be2c73dc5829e29e93ad9ff92f91f02327c83c9ae322564a35353d634d7eb50 68e2e38d-b71c-11f1-8bc5-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=248636 Naravoslovnotehniška fakulteta 0 0 0