20.500.12556/RUL-187046 Kombinatorična arbitraža med napovednimi trgi Combinatorial Arbitrage Between Prediction Markets Napovedni trgi omogočajo trgovanje s pogodbami, ki ob nastopu določenega izida izplačajo en dolar. Cene enakovrednih in logično povezanih trgov na različnih platformah pogosto odstopajo, kar krši zakon ene cene in odpira priložnosti za arbitražo. V diplomskem delu predstavimo sistem za zaznavanje kombinatorične arbitraže med štirimi platformami napovednih trgov (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict in Limitless). Jedro sistema sestavljata deterministično zasnovan cevovod, ki gradi medplatformni identitetni sloj, in linearni program nad prostorom izidov Ω. Slednji obstoj arbitraže matematično dokaže in se ne opira na cenovne korelacije. Sistem ovrednotimo na dveh ravneh. Najprej preverimo, ali identitetni sloj pravilno določa prostor izidov Ω, pri čemer priklic pri zajemu kandidatov izmerimo na lastnem preverjenem naboru in označene ocene natančnosti ne izvedemo. Nato ekonomsko upravičenost izmerimo z devetdnevnim neprekinjenim opazovalnim zagonom v realnem času, v katerem naročil nismo oddajali. Meritev obsega 796 arbitražnih struktur s 6 148 USD hipotetične modelno ocenjene spodnje meje dobička ob dejanski globini knjig naročil. Glede na kapital, ki bi ga te strukture vezale, to ustreza kapitalsko tehtanemu donosu 0,52 %. Ker naročil ne oddajamo, je ves zaznani dobiček hipotetičen. Potrditvena skupina 306 epizod s 522 USD spodnje meje, katerih trgi so se do konca okna že uradno razrešili, služi preverjanju teh izračunov, saj rekonstruirani poravnani dobiček ob uradnih izidih znaša 533 USD. Od 308 struktur, ki so se do konca okna razrešile, jih je 306 doseglo svojo izračunano spodnjo mejo ali jo preseglo, dve pa sta od nje odstopali. Pri prvi je razhajanje med pravili poravnave obeh platform povzročilo izgubo približno 0,38 USD, druga pa ob koncu okna še ni bila v celoti poravnana. Prediction markets let participants trade contracts that pay one dollar when a given outcome occurs. Equivalent and logically related markets on different platforms frequently diverge in price, violating the law of one price and opening arbitrage opportunities. This thesis presents a system that detects combinatorial arbitrage across four prediction-market venues (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict and Limitless). Its core is a deterministic-first pipeline that builds a cross-platform identity layer, together with a linear program over the outcome space Ω that proves the existence of arbitrage rather than relying on price correlation. The system is evaluated on two levels: the correctness of the identity layer in defining the outcome space Ω (candidate-generation recall measured on our own verified set, with no labelled precision evaluation carried out) and the economic soundness of the detected opportunities, measured in a nine-day continuous passive live observation run in which no orders were placed. That run recorded 796 arbitrage structures carrying a modelled payoff floor of $6,148 at the order-book depth actually quoted, which amounts to a capital-weighted aggregate return of 0.52 % on the capital those structures would tie up. Of the 308 structures that resolved by the end of the observation window, 306 paid at or above their own computed floor; those 306 episodes paid $533 against a computed floor of $522. Two structures deviated from their floors. The first deviation, a shortfall of roughly $0.38, was caused by a divergence between the settlement rules of the two venues involved, while the second structure had not yet fully settled by the end of the window. arbitraža napovedni trg kombinatorično linearno programiranje medplatformna identiteta arbitrage prediction market combinatorial linear programming cross-platform identity true false false Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Diplomsko delo/naloga 2026-09-08 15:00:17 2026-09-08 15:00:26 2026-09-18 09:31:24 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 38813 291556099 Krasovec_Dominik_-_Kombinatoricna_arbitraza_med_napovednimi_trgi.pdf Krasovec_Dominik_-_Kombinatoricna_arbitraza_med_napovednimi_trgi.pdf 1 DD4495C0547EC5AB004746F562950698 55c77c1e598d67784582bc3b8fa3db08875cbb8e5f41a3b6e8c2262bb08dc5e2 3e0fb726-ab85-11f1-8bc5-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=246479 Fakulteta za računalništvo in informatiko 0 0 0