20.500.12556/RUL-186639 Strateška dilema Kremlja in vpliv naftnih sankcij na vzdržnost ruskega financiranja vojne v Ukrajini Il dilemma strategico del Cremlino e l'impatto delle sanzioni petrolifere sulla sostenibilità del finanziamento russo della guerra in Ucraina Članek analizira vpliv zahodnih energetskih sankcij na fiskalno zmožnost Ruske federacije za financiranje vojne v Ukrajini (2023–2025). Na podlagi analize proračunskih podatkov, preusmeritve naftnih tokov in logističnih prilagoditev avtor ugotavlja, da sankcije niso ustavile ruskega naftnega izvoza, so pa bistveno zmanjšale proračunske prihodke. Soočen s strukturnim razhajanjem med rastočimi vojaškimi izdatki in omejeno naftno rento, je Kremelj sprejel strateško odločitev za prioritiziranje vojaških ciljev ne glede na politične in gospodarske posledice. Rezultati kažejo, da prehod v vojno ekonomijo, podprt z davčnimi reformami in krčenjem civilnih investicij, omogoča kratkoročno financiranje vojaških operacij, dolgoročno pa vodi v gospodarsko nazadovanje L'articolo analizza l'impatto delle sanzioni energetiche occidentali sulla capacità fiscale della Federazione Russa di finanziare la guerra in Ucraina (2023–2025). Sulla base dell'analisi dei dati di bilancio, del reindirizzamento dei flussi petroliferi e degli adeguamenti logistici, l'autore rileva che le sanzioni non hanno fermato le esportazioni di petrolio russo, ma hanno ridotto in modo significativo le entrate di bilancio. Di fronte a una divergenza strutturale tra le crescenti spese militari e la limitata rendita petrolifera, il Cremlino ha preso la decisione strategica di dare priorità agli obiettivi militari, indipendentemente dalle conseguenze politiche ed economiche. I risultati mostrano che la transizione verso un’economia di guerra, sostenuta da riforme fiscali e dalla riduzione degli investimenti civili, consente il finanziamento a breve termine delle operazioni militari, ma a lungo termine conduce al declino economico.The aim of this article is to analyze the effectiveness of Western energy sanctions against the Russian Federation, with a specific focus on their impact on the fiscal sustainability of financing the war in Ukraine during the 2023–2025 period. The analysis addresses two research questions: 1) whether specific sanction mechanisms (the European Union embargo, the G7 price cap) have successfully reduced Russian budgetary revenues from crude oil exports, and 2) what strategic and fiscal adjustments the Russian Federation has been forced to implement as a result, and what these reveal about the long-term (un)sustainability of its war economy model and war financing. The methodological approach is based on the analysis of primary budgetary data from the Russian Ministry of Finance and secondary data from international energy institutions regarding the dynamics of oil export flows and the budgetary expenditures of the Russian Federation. The results indicate that the sanctions did not trigger a collapse in Russian export volumes, as the country effectively bypassed the restrictions within six months of their implementation by establishing a shadow fleet and redirecting sales flows to Asia. Nevertheless, the analysis demonstrates that the sanctions are functioning as an effective fiscal pressure: due to forced discounts and higher transaction costs, the Russian Federation’s net revenues from oil rents have declined at the exact time when Russian military expenditures are reaching record levels in 2025. The interpretation of the data reveals that the Kremlin is facing a strategic dilemma, to which it responds by maintaining military spending while simultaneously seeking new (tax) sources to finance the war and cutting other non-essential, non-military expenditures. Although this model allows for the continuation of the war at its current intensity (autumn 2025) in the short term, the Kremlin’s long-term room for maneuver is narrowing, driving the country toward structural economic decline ekonomske sankcije Ruska federacija vojna Ukrajini energetska varnost cenovna kapica naftni trg sanzioni economiche Rederazione Russa guerra in Ucraina sicurezza energetica tetto ai prezzi mercato petrolifero economic sanctions economic sanctions Russian Federation war in Ukraine energy security price cap oil market true false true Slovenski jezik Italijanski jezik Rusija; Članek v reviji 2026-09-03 15:11:17 2026-09-03 15:11:22 2026-09-05 03:35:19 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 Str. 1-12 št. 1 Letn. 36 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2026-01-01 339.9 1408-5348 10.19233/ASHS.2026.01 283374339 document.pdf document.pdf 1 C9DB8A7ED0ADF40749E3E122B3AFFC7D ba802662e5a8e24e9657bf37c3e6b81efdbf1b7f81aca9896c795eb080091e3b 0a919eb6-a799-11f1-8bc5-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=245934 https://zdjp.si/ojs/index.php/ashs/article/view/413/175 1 f636b401-a798-11f1-8bc5-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=245933 Fakulteta za družbene vede 0 0 0