20.500.12556/RUL-186082 Counterfactual identification of institutional rupture evidence from constitutional transformation in Venezuela How can institutional rupture be identified in settings where the treated unit is singular, interventions are composite, and institutional deterioration unfolds through mutually reinforcing constitutional, political, and legal transformations? We develop a counterfactual framework for identifying systemic judicial rupture in single-unit settings using synthetic-control methods, generalized synthetic controls, synthetic difference-in-differences, matrix completion, placebo inference, and latent institutional measurement. We apply the framework to Venezuela following the 1999 constitutional overhaul under Hugo Chávez. Across nine dimensions of judicial integrity, we document a large, persistent, and system-wide post-1999 divergence relative to multiple counterfactual constructions, including regional and worldwide donor pools. To address concerns regarding outcome proliferation and measurement instability, we construct a latent judicial quality index using principal-components analysis and show that the estimated rupture remains exceptionally strong across all specifications. The article contributes a general empirical framework for studying institutional collapse, constitutional backsliding, and judicial capture in environments where traditional panel approaches are poorly suited to the object of inference. Venezuela socio-political system public institutions constitutional order protection independency legal regime judicial practice judicial independence institutional rupture synthetic control methods democratic backsliding constitutional change judicial capture latent institutional quality Venezuela družbenopolitična ureditev družbene ustanove varstvo ustavnega reda neodvisnost pravni režimi sodna praksa true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2026-08-26 15:08:35 2026-08-26 15:11:41 2026-08-28 03:42:53 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 [in press] 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova VTisku NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 346 2755-323X 10.1177/2755323X261479451 288794627 garoupa-et-al-2026-counterfactual-identification-of-institutional-rupture-evidence-from-constitutional-transformation_(1).pdf garoupa-et-al-2026-counterfactual-identification-of-institutional-rupture-evidence-from-constitutional-transformation_(1).pdf 1 99BAFDC9EA013DF3CC92068039B764C3 58107d0747d3815bdd3489f95e3697dc1ebe2d563aacd638a127d12ea80bee1c 26f14a2f-a14f-11f1-9b0d-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=245150 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2755323X261479451 0 2f3d0e99-a14f-11f1-9b0d-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=245151 Ekonomska fakulteta 0 0 0