20.500.12556/RUL-185051 After the pandemic optimal fiscal policies for Slovenia This paper derives implementable medium-run fiscal instrument paths for Slovenia, a small Euro-Area economy, in response to plausible transitory external shocks. We combine the macroeconometric model SLOPOL12 with a stochastic optimal-control framework in which the objective function is operationalized from a survey of Slovenian policy makers’ macroeconomic priorities. Approximately optimal policies are computed using the OPTCON algorithm in relation to a baseline forecast and alternative shock scenarios. The results highlight a systematic trade-off between stabilizing output and employment and maintaining fiscal sustainability in terms of the deficit and public debt. Across scenarios, instruments that influence both the demand side and potential output, most notably direct taxes and public investment in physical and human capital (including R&D-related spending), are optimal for cyclical stabilization while instruments with predominantly demand-side or budgetary effects, such as VAT, government consumption, and residual revenues, primarily assigned to budgetary consolidation. The qualitative patterns are robust across shocks and clarify how differential instrument effectiveness shapes the optimal timing and composition of policy adjustment under explicit constraints and stated policy objectives. macroeconomics fiscal policy optimization Slovenia optimal control policy optimization makroekonomija fiskalna politika optimizacija Slovenija true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2026-07-21 16:40:37 2026-07-21 16:42:21 2026-07-22 04:04:20 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 [in press] 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova VTisku NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 330.3 0340-8744 10.1007/s10663-026-09691-5 284476419 s10663-026-09691-5.pdf s10663-026-09691-5.pdf 1 83DA9BCE09046928D0BFBB0881CFACB8 2eb735b0051b5febdf4d3e5c65e481d6ed7fce77055188d5b1e50937d665914f 15229e23-8512-11f1-9b0d-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=243089 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10663-026-09691-5 0 190eb37d-8512-11f1-9b0d-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=243090 Ekonomska fakulteta 0 0 0