20.500.12556/RUL-183697 How to predict gymnastics’ results a simple method based on the 2022 European Championships Kako napovedati rezultate orodne telovadbe enostaven način na temelju Evropskega prvenstva 2022 It is very important for coaches in charge of selection to know the competition level based on the athletes registered, as well as to assess the gymnasts’ capacity to achieve the expected performance. In international artistic gymnastics competitions, access to the all-around (C2), apparatus (C3), and team (C4) finals is determined based on the results of the qualification round (C1). A specialist who competes on only one or two apparatuses may have a chance to win medals on those apparatuses but may also be a disadvantage to the team score. Based on the nominative entries submitted by each competing nation one month prior to the 2022 European Championships held in Munich, we extracted previous individual scores from national and international competitions over a period of six months before the 2022 EC. Individual standard deviations were computed for each competing athlete, and their mean and maximal scores were used as two predictive outcomes. The individual standard deviation on still rings showed a low Q1, median, Q3, and IQR for both junior and senior MAG, while pommel horse exhibited greater variability. Among WAG athletes, those competing in junior and senior vault and floor had lower Q1, median, Q3, and IQR compared to uneven bars and balance beam. When comparing both predictions (mean and maximal values) to the scores obtained in Munich, small differences were observed in terms of random errors. However, a large systematic error indicated a significant overestimation in the maximal prediction, explained by the fact that athletes are not always able to perform at their best. The percentage of gymnasts with a score less than 0.30 points away from the mean prediction ranged from 28.1% (senior floor) to 58.9% (junior still rings) for MAG and from 23.9% (junior balance beam) to 70.7% (senior vault) for WAG athletes. The simple method outlined in this article provides information about the method’s reliability on different apparatuses, as well as insight into the accuracy of score predictions across the apparatuses. Zelo pomembno je, da vaditelji poznajo raven tekmovanja na podlagi prijavljenih športnikov ter ocenijo sposobnost telovadcev za dosego pričakovane učinkovitosti. Na mednarodnih tekmovanjih v orodni telovadbi je nastop v finalih v mnogoboju (C2), na orodjih (C3) in ekipnem tekmovanju (C4) določen na podlagi rezultatov predtekmovanj (C1). Posamezniki, ki tekmuje le na enem ali dveh orodjih, ima lahko priložnost za osvajanje odličij na teh, vendar lahko slabost predstavlja moštveni rezultat. Na podlagi poimenskih prijav, ki so jih posamezne države poslale mesec dni pred Evropskim prvenstvom 2022 v Münchnu, smo izračunali pretekle posamezne rezultate iz državnih in mednarodnih tekmovanj v obdobju šestih mesecev pred EP 2022. Izračunana so bila posamezna standardna odstopanja za vsakega tekmovalca, povprečni in najvišji rezultati pa so bili uporabljeni kot dve napovedni spremenljivki. Posamezen standardni odklon na krogih je pokazal nizke vrednosti Q1, mediane, Q3 in IQR (rang med kvartili) tako med mladinci kot tudi med člani, medtem ko je konj z ročaji pokazal večjo spremenljivost. Pri tekmovalkah so imele tiste, ki so tekmovale pri mladinkah in članicah na preskoku ter na parterju, nižje vrednosti Q1, mediane, Q3 in IQR v primerjavi z dvovišinsko bradljo in gredjo. Ko smo primerjali obe napovedi (povprečne in največje vrednosti) z rezultati doseženimi v Münchnu, smo opazili majhne razlike v smislu naključnih napak. Vendar pa je velika sistematična napaka nakazovala pomembno previsoko napoved za največje vrednosti, kar je bilo pojasnjeno s tem, da športniki niso vedno sposobni izvesti nastopa na najboljši možen način. Delež orodnih tekmovalcev, katerih rezultat je bil manjši od 0,30 točke od povprečne napovedi, je pri moški orodni telovadbi znašal od 28,1 % (člani, parter) do 58,9 % (mladinci, krogi) in od 23,9 % (mladinke, gred) do 70,7 % (članice, preskok) za žensko orodno telovadbo. Enostaven način, predstavljen v tem članku, nudi podatke o zanesljivosti in natančnost napovedi rezultatov na teh orodjih. sport gymnastics artistic gymnastics forecast score apparatus age-categories šport orodna telovadba gimnastika napoved točke orodje starostne kategorije true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Podatek o licenci CC BY-SA 4.0 je naveden na pristajalni strani članka (glej zgoraj izvorni URL). (Datum opombe: 19. 6. 2026) Članek v reviji 2026-06-17 14:08:21 2026-06-19 09:45:51 2026-06-24 09:10:40 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2025 0 0 Str. 35-50, 158 iss. 1 Vol. 17 2025 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 796.41 1855-7171 10.52165/sgj.17.1.35-50 230071811 35-LECOCQ_article.pdf 35-LECOCQ_article.pdf 1 BD58D899B3191162D542B3B7752BA4F3 1e0f8931776130bb3e7641ef3150cbb8276c7a1e74bbe12ae8c22233e717ca05 c04fd2e6-6f0f-11f1-9b0d-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=236387 https://journals.uni-lj.si/sgj/article/view/17153 0 e5acc04c-6bb2-11f1-9b0d-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=236028 Fakulteta za šport Science of gymnastics journal 0 0 0