20.500.12556/RUL-183171 Predictive models for active suicidal ideation in cognitive decline identifying risk factors Background: Suicide rates among older adults with cognitive decline represent a critical public health concern. Despite the association between cognitive decline and suicidality, predictive models for active suicidal ideation (ASI) in this population remain underexplored. Methods: A retrospective study of 1,889 patients with cognitive decline was conducted using electronic health records. Sociodemographic, cognitive, clinical, psychiatric, and functional variables were analyzed. Univariate logistic regression identified correlates of ASI, followed by multivariate predictive modeling using Logistic Regression (LR) and XGBoost. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) identified key predictors, and SHAP values provided model interpretability. Results: Depressive symptoms, Mini-Mental-State-Exam score, duration of cognitive decline, past suicide attempts, antidementia medication use, and living arrangement emerged as key predictors. Both LR and XGBoost demonstrated robust performance (ROC AUC: 0.81–0.70; PR AUC: 0.55). Conclusion: Multivariate predictive models provide improved risk stratification for ASI, highlighting the need for targeted interventions among individuals with cognitive decline. active suicidal ideation cognitive decline older adults predictive modeling aktivne samomorilne misli kognitivni upad starejši odrasli napovedno modeliranje true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2026-06-07 04:13:33 2026-06-07 09:08:59 2026-06-08 04:47:05 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 10 str. iss. 1, art. 165 Vol. 26 Jan. 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 616.89 1471-244X 10.1186/s12888-025-07768-2 271779075 RAZ_Vidovic_Eva_2026.pdf RAZ_Vidovic_Eva_2026.pdf 1 95CD441647EF5F776CFD16F61DF9316C 6eb058a3ecbb158b6949efe30b2b8175199ec633d655e12f9ce019c81e5e233b 7e47f853-623f-11f1-b0ab-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=235068 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12888-025-07768-2 1 212af070-6216-11f1-b0ab-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=235038 Medicinska fakulteta 0 0 0