20.500.12556/RUL-180359 Ethnic conflicts, civil war, and economic growth region‐level evidence from former Yugoslavia This paper studies the long‐term effects of the Yugoslav civil war (1987–1995) on subnational economic growth across 78 regions in five former Yugoslav republics from 1950 to 2015. We construct counterfactual growth trajectories using a robust region‐level donor pool from 32 conflict‐free countries. Applying a hybrid synthetic control and difference‐in‐differences approach, we find that the civil war inflicted significant regional per capita GDP losses estimated at 38 percent relative to the synthetic counterfactual, with substantial regional heterogeneity. The most war‐affected regions suffered prolonged and per- manent economic declines, while north‐western regions and capital cities experienced more transitory effects. Population displacement, ethnic fractionalization and polarization, and economic geography help explain cross‐regional variation in GDP losses. Our results are robust to extensive variety of specification tests, placebo analyses, and falsification exercises. Yugoslavia civil war ethnic characteristics economic growth ethnic conflict regions Jugoslavija državljanska vojna etnične karakteristike ekonomska rast true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2026-03-06 12:19:00 2026-03-06 12:21:25 2026-03-07 04:40:09 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 [in press] 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova VTisku NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 332.1 0022-4146 10.1111/jors.70055 266749699 Journal_of_Regional_Science_-_2026_-_Keseljevic_-_Ethnic_Conflicts__Civil_War__and_Economic_Growth__Region‐Level_Evidence.pdf Journal_of_Regional_Science_-_2026_-_Keseljevic_-_Ethnic_Conflicts__Civil_War__and_Economic_Growth__Region‐Level_Evidence.pdf 1 E08BACE832062E1AC265F0BBBE9D2B27 10ac5390bd14baccd5d75bc8196944ee15dbfcf491c86a7056921e892c877eb3 2448ccad-194e-11f1-a1ba-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=229677 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jors.70055 0 1af2625d-194e-11f1-a1ba-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=229675 Ekonomska fakulteta 0 0 0