20.500.12556/RUL-178471 Assessing the long-term feasibility of net-zero energy houses in Slovenia impacts of climate scenarios, roof design, and technological progress This study assesses the long-term viability of high-performance detached houses in Slovenia as net-zero energy buildings (NZEBs) under future climate change. Using a bottom-up approach, over one million energy models—calibrated against a sample of 78 real houses—were simulated across 12 Slovenian cities. The analysis integrated future climate projections from a 20-model ensemble (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) with scenarios for technological advancements in HVAC and photovoltaic (PV) systems. Our findings demonstrate that, under optimistic technology development scenarios, projected efficiency gains significantly outweigh the climate-driven rise in cooling demand. Specifically, the solar-ready roof area required to achieve winter energy balance is projected to decrease by a factor of up to 6.5 by 2080, making long-term NZEB status attainable. However, achieving a year-round energy balance remains a critical challenge, particularly during winter in colder regions, where gable roofs perform poorly for PV generation compared to pitched or flat roofs. The results highlight that roof design is a decisive factor for NZEB feasibility. We conclude that realizing Slovenia's NZEB potential requires a shift away from restrictive, one-size-fits-all urban planning guidelines towards more flexible, site-specific design frameworks that optimize on-site renewable energy generation. climate change net-zero energy building renewable energy detached house technology development podnebne spremembe neto nič-energijska stavba obnovljivi viri energije enostanovanjska hiša razvoj tehnologije true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2026-01-28 12:18:23 2026-01-28 12:18:30 2026-01-30 04:12:48 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2026 0 0 18 str. Vol. 261, art. 125315 Apr. 2026 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 502.174.3:502.21:551.583(497.4) 1879-0682 10.1016/j.renene.2026.125315 266449411 Pajek...-Assessing_the_long-term_feasibility_of_net-zero_energy_houses_in_Slovenia.pdf Pajek...-Assessing_the_long-term_feasibility_of_net-zero_energy_houses_in_Slovenia.pdf 1 CD401EF673A1AA153A79FD2568970130 620a3cbd9f305601e838dadf0b5370d5e82f861cdda772efe04cab471650111a 6f8cabbf-fc3b-11f0-a1ba-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=226362 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148126001400 1 0deba75a-fc3b-11f0-a1ba-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=226361 Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo 0 0 0