20.500.12556/RUL-177866 Vpliv političnih odločitev držav na položaj mednarodnih valut: primer odziva ZDA na vojno v Ukrajini in posledice za ameriški dolar magistrsko delo The impact of states’ political decisions on the position of international currencies: the case of the U.S. response to the war in Ukraine and its implications for the U.S. dollar Magistrsko delo obravnava mednarodno vlogo ameriškega dolarja in politične dejavnike, ki lahko vplivajo na njegovo dolgoročno prevlado. Dolar je od konference v Bretton Woodsu temelj globalnega finančnega sistema, saj predstavlja glavno rezervno valuto, obračunsko enoto in menjalno sredstvo v mednarodni trgovini. Tradicionalno je njegova moč izhajala iz gospodarske stabilnosti in likvidnosti, v zadnjih desetletjih pa narašča pomen političnih odločitev, ki lahko omajajo zaupanje v njegovo stabilnost. Glavni raziskovalni cilj naloge je bil preveriti, kako lahko politične poteze, zlasti sankcije in uporaba valute kot zunanjepolitičnega instrumenta, sprožijo procese opuščanja mednarodnih valut, četudi to ni ekonomsko optimalno. Empirični del naloge temelji na študiji primera Rusije v obdobju 2014–2024, ko so ZDA uvedle obsežne finančne in gospodarske sankcije. Analiza kaže, da so sankcije spodbudile sistematično dedolarizacijo: zmanjševanje deleža dolarja v deviznih rezervah, krepitev imetij zlata in renminbija ter večjo uporabo alternativnih valut v trgovini. Kljub temu rezultati potrjujejo, da so učinki dedolarizacije omejeni, saj ostajajo globalni finančni tokovi in rezerve v veliki meri vezani na dolar. Raziskava tako pokaže, da je dedolarizacija predvsem politično motiviran proces, ki pa je dolgoročno pogojen z gospodarskimi realnostmi. Dolar ostaja osrednje sidro mednarodnega sistema, medtem ko se možnosti multipolarnosti razvijajo počasi in brez jasnega naslednika. This master’s thesis explores the international role of the U.S. dollar and the political determinants that may shape its long-term dominance. Since the Bretton Woods Conference, the dollar has served as the cornerstone of the global financial system, functioning as the primary reserve currency, unit of account, and medium of exchange in international trade. While its strength has traditionally been rooted in economic stability and liquidity, recent decades have underscored the growing influence of political decisions that may erode confidence in its stability. The central research objective is to assess how political actions, particularly sanctions and the instrumentalisation of currency in foreign policy can trigger processes of disengagement from international currencies, even when such moves are not economically optimal. The empirical analysis focuses on Russia in the period 2014–2024, during which the U.S. imposed extensive financial and economic sanctions. Findings indicate that sanctions have spurred systematic dedollarization: a declining share of the dollar in foreign exchange reserves, increased holdings of gold and the renminbi, and a broader use of alternative currencies in trade. Nonetheless, the results confirm that the impact of dedollarization remains limited, as global financial flows and reserves continue to be predominantly tied to the dollar. The research demonstrates that dedollarization is above all a politically motivated process, yet one constrained in the long term by underlying economic realities. The dollar remains the central anchor of the international financial system, while prospects for monetary multipolarity are advancing only gradually and without the emergence of a clear successor. dolar dedolarizacija politično tveganje mednarodni finančni sistem dollar dedollarization political risk international financial system true true false M. Rituper Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Magistrsko delo/naloga 2026-01-10 08:30:04 2026-01-10 08:30:15 2026-01-12 10:35:32 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2025 0 Ljubljana 0 Ljubljana 1 spletni vir (1 datoteka PDF (119 str.)) 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 32:339.72(043.2) 191706 264281347 25256.pdf 25256.pdf 1 1FB98E26DB7F6D7F795B6D9C8A254A76 007b2eb843c2b3b23865f32a1e3a51b6019a1b9d50ac338988e886993df0de6f 30963725-edf6-11f0-bf92-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=225256 Fakulteta za družbene vede 0 0 0