20.500.12556/RUL-177786 Revolutions as structural breaks the long-term economic and institutional consequences of the 1979 Iranian Revolution This paper examines whether major political institutional disruptions produce temporary shocks or structural breaks in long-term development. Using the 1979 Iranian Revolution as a natural experiment, we apply the synthetic control method to estimate its causal effect on economic growth and institutional quality. Drawing on a panel of 66 countries from 1950 to 2015, we construct counterfactual trajectories for Iran in the absence of revolutionary change. Our results show a persistent and statistically significant divergence in per capita GDP, institutional quality, and legal constraints on executive power. We perform in-space and in-time placebo tests to rule out confounding events, such as the Iran-Iraq War and international sanctions, and propose confidence interval estimation to address uncertainty in treatment effects. The findings identify the Iranian Revolution as a structural institutional rupture, with implications for the classification of institutional change more broadly. We contribute a generalizable empirical framework for distinguishing between temporary and structural institutional shocks in long-run development. economic policy economic history quantitative analysis synthetic control method institutional change long-run development Iran ekonomska politika ekonomska zgodovina kvantitativna analiza true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2026-01-07 13:05:19 2026-01-07 13:15:44 2026-06-05 14:52:35 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2025 0 0 Str. 273-301 iss. 3 Vol. 36 Sep. 2025 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 330.1 1043-4062 10.1007/s10602-025-09471-6 238406915 s10602-025-09471-6.pdf s10602-025-09471-6.pdf 1 F4DDDE567D407A64F6D03C02660F0D7A 6c40d763aecb6fb29b36e6c74f093271d3069d1d2ef81efc93e3a6a03d2ccc16 81267a25-ebc1-11f0-bf92-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=225103 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10602-025-09471-6 0 78b72003-ebc1-11f0-bf92-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=225102 Ekonomska fakulteta 0 0 0