20.500.12556/RUL-171034 Integrating habitat suitability, connectivity, and individual-based models to guide priorities for the creation of a lynx metapopulation in Southeastern Europe The Balkan lynx (Lynx lynx balcanicus) is the most endangered Eurasian lynx subspecies in Europe, with fewer than 50 individuals facing high inbreeding risk due to isolation and small population size. Genetic reinforcement using the Carpathian subspecies has been proposed to aid conservation, together with the establishment of new protected areas (PAs) and establishing connectivity with neighboring populations. In this study, we first assessed niche overlap between these two subspecies, and then we built species distribution models (SDMs) and computed landscape connectivity with circuit-theory techniques. By integrating habitat and connectivity models, we identified the key areas that could be used as stepping-stone patches. Next, we used individual-based models (IBMs) to assess colonization time and occurrence probabilities within them. Results showed that suitable and connected habitats primarily lie between the Balkan and Dinaric populations, with limited connectivity to the Carpathians. Although these key areas have favorable occurrence probabilities, long colonization time suggests the need for translocations. Moreover, most of these key areas, as well as the corridors among them, are not protected by PAs. Our results have significant implications, revealing the importance of the Dinaric population for potential natural gene flow, and the need for translocations to secure short-term survival of the Balkan lynx. The identified stepping-stone patches could be used to guide the establishment of new PAs in the region, to support natural recolonization and expansion of this population, leading towards the creation of a metapopulation that would ensure long-term persistence of the lynx in Southeastern Europe. Lynx lynx landscape connectivity species distribution models mechanistic-models large carnivores translocations evrazijski ris Lynx lynx povezljivost prostora modelitanje velike zveri preselitve true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2025-07-28 10:00:08 2025-07-28 10:00:16 2025-07-29 03:57:02 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2025 0 0 11 str. article no. 111381 Vol. 310 Oct. 2025 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 599.742.734:574.3(497) 1873-2917 10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111381 243995139 RAZ_Serva_Davide_2025.pdf RAZ_Serva_Davide_2025.pdf 1 7B7B1B101D929D5E6A56D206693E824A 1ee5e4251c98c1c73a35ea01d3a8b1566d306647ef7ff22b451015ba8388d874 4a5625bb-6b8a-11f0-9328-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=213359 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320725004185 1 dca3cb5d-6b88-11f0-9328-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=213358 Biotehniška fakulteta 0 0 0