20.500.12556/RUL-154312 Estimating the effects of political instability in nascent democracies In this paper, we revisit and examine the effect of political instability on institutional quality. To this end, we exploit the crackdown of government cabinet in 2008 that led to almost two decades of pervasive political instability using the unique case of Slovenia and estimate the average treatment effect of political instability and the missing counterfactual scenario for the period 1996–2020. Based on large-scale Bayesian analysis with Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, we extract the residual component of institutional quality from the variation in predetermined unobserved characteristics. Across more than 1.5 million sequenced random samples, we construct novel time-varying estimates of institutional quality at the local and regional level. Our difference-in-differences and synthetic control estimates emphasize a rampant deterioration of institutional quality in response to political instability with evidence of weakened rule of law, less effective public sector, decreased political accountability, and more widespread prevalence of power abuses. The estimated negative effects of political instability are robust to a variety of placebo checks across more than 12 billion placebo averages for institutional quality outcome variable using random sampling method of treatment permutation. socio-political system institutions crises political instability institutional quality latent variable analysis synthetic control method družbenopolitična ureditev institucije krize true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2024-02-06 15:34:01 2024-02-06 15:37:10 2025-08-08 13:31:16 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2023 0 0 Str. 599-642 iss. 6 Vol. 243 2023 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 304 0021-4027 10.1515/jbnst-2022-0074 163425795 Estimating_the_effects_of_political_instability_in_nascent_democracies.pdf Estimating_the_effects_of_political_instability_in_nascent_democracies.pdf 1 74ECB1903B823285383135B68F9995A4 7f0b43ded08ff22bfb8104971e27bce27d5a56040294bf01be639d3666b4f4d6 06b5d597-c4fd-11ee-a2a3-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=180655 https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/jbnst-2022-0074/html 0 0c1c237c-c4fd-11ee-a2a3-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=180656 Ekonomska fakulteta 0 0 0