20.500.12556/RUL-153382 Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war We estimate the effects of the Syrian civil war using a synthetic control method which is based on a counterfactual scenario of an absence of the armed conflict that has led to the humanitarian crisis and one of the largest population displacements without a precedent in modern history. By comparing Syria’s growth and development trajectories with the characteristics of a set of sixty-six countries with no armed internal conflict between 1996 and 2021, we can deduce a series of gaps in economic growth, human development, and institutional quality that can be attributed to the civil war. Our analysis shows that the effect of the Syrian civil war on the trajectory of economic growth was temporary and almost disappeared before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conversely, the war led to an unprecedented decline in human development, a high rise in infant mortality, and a prevalent degradation of institutional quality. To the present day, the civil war has led to more than 4500 additional infant deaths with a permanently derailed trajectory of longevity. The unparalleled and permanent deterioration in institutional quality resulting from the war is indicated by a diminished rule of law, civil liberties, government efficiency, and a widespread escalation of corruption. To ensure the internal validity of the findings, the estimated effects were subjected to and passed a variety of placebo checks. Syria civil war economic development synthetic control method Sirija državljanska vojna ekonomski razvoj true false true Angleški jezik Slovenski jezik Članek v reviji 2023-12-28 10:57:04 2023-12-28 11:00:18 2024-02-13 03:37:03 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2024 0 0 Str. 671–703 iss. 2 Vol. 66 2024 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 346 0377-7332 10.1007/s00181-023-02470-2 159072259 s00181-023-02470-2.pdf s00181-023-02470-2.pdf 1 A1522B939BAB17EC6B98FD5506D8BA09 d4c775423e3ab1b640f19e274241b4d0ba554c92eb3ca1131995e61187e3c48b aa6012ff-c9a2-11ee-a96a-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=180774 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00181-023-02470-2 0 c3f90454-a567-11ee-9bc9-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=179321 Ekonomska fakulteta 0 0 0