20.500.12556/RUL-150019 Taylorjevo pravilo in njegovo upoštevanje s strani Evropske centralne banke delo diplomskega seminarja The Taylor Rule and its Observance by the European Central Bank Diplomska naloga analizira upoštevanje Taylorjevega pravila v monetarni politiki Evropske centralne banke. Za potrebe analitičnega dela naloge so najprej podrobno predstavljeni Evropska centralna banka, inflacija, proizvodna učinkovitost in Taylorjevo pravilo. Podatki jasno prikazujejo, da se je Evropska centralna banka Taylorjevega pravila v obdobju med letoma 2001 in 2019 različno dobro držala, pri čemer je najbolj izrazita odstopanja zaslediti od let 2015-2016 dalje, ko je Taylorjevo pravilo predlagalo pozitivne obrestne mere, zlasti zaradi rastoče in pozitivne proizvodne vrzeli, Evropska centralna banka pa jih je držala na ničelni ravni. Leto 2008, ki označuje začetek svetovne finančne krize, se izkaže za ključno prelomnico med različnimi preferencami držav. Pred letom 2008 Taylorjevo pravilo večini držav predlaga višje obrestne mere, kot jih je določila Evropska centralna banka. Po letu 2008 pa obrestna mera za operacije glavnega refinanciranja (MRO) postane previsoka državam, ki so najbolj zadolžene, medtem ko je prenizka državam, ki si po krizi hitro opomorejo. Tekom analize pridemo tudi do zaključka, da je Evropska centralna banka pred letom 2008 pripisovala večji pomen proizvodni vrzeli, kot ob začetku krize leta 2008. Čeprav je Taylorjevo pravilo koristna smernica pri določanju obrestnih mer in bi njegovo upoštevanje lahko delno prispevalo k preprečitvi finančne krize leta 2008, pa je vendarle po mnenju nekaterih pomanjkljivo, predvsem zaradi neupoštevanja drugih pomembnih ekonomskih kazalnikov. The thesis analyses the observance of the Taylor rule in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. For the purposes of the analytical part of the thesis, we firstly focus on the detailed presentation of the European Central Bank, inflation, production efficiency and the Taylor rule. The data clearly show that the European Central Bank followed the Taylor rule in varying degrees between 2001 and 2019, with the most pronounced deviations being observed after 2015, 2016, when the Taylor rule suggested positive interest rates, especially due to the growing and positive production gaps, and the European Central Bank kept them at zero. The year 2008, which marks the beginning of the global financial crisis, turns out to be the key turning point between the different preferences of countries. Before 2008, the Taylor rule suggested higher interest rates to most countries in comparison to those set by the European Central Bank. After 2008, however, the main refinancing operations (MRO) rate becomes too high for countries that are most indebted while it is too low for countries that quickly recover from the crisis. During the analysis, we also conclude that the European Central Bank attached more importance to the output gap before 2008 than at the beginning of the crisis in 2008. Although the Taylor rule is a useful guideline in determining interest rates and its observance could partially contribute to the prevention of the financial crisis in 2008, it is still, according to some, flawed, mainly due to the failure to take into account some other important economic indicators. Taylorjevo pravilo obrestne mere inflacija Evropska centralna banka inflacijska vrzel proizvodna vrzel Taylor rule interest rates inflation European Central Bank inflation gap output gap true false false Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Delo diplomskega seminarja/zaključno seminarsko delo/naloga 2023-09-13 08:15:47 2023-09-13 08:15:50 2024-05-29 10:41:27 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2023 0 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 519.8 135852 164297475 9620.pdf 9620.pdf 1 FB6681EB56C5BD68D2305296D05F9A9B 3595ad4a93876b4f7ae4b1250c3badbdda12b5782e09bc19e345f3ef35a4e9da fdcc5566-51fc-11ee-916e-0050569b8976 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=174552 Fakulteta za matematiko in fiziko 0 0 0