20.500.12556/RUL-141913 Extended compartmental model for modeling COVID‑19 epidemic in Slovenia In the absence of a systematic approach to epidemiological modeling in Slovenia, various isolated mathematical epidemiological models emerged shortly after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. We present an epidemiological model adapted to the COVID-19 situation in Slovenia. The standard SEIR model was extended to distinguish between age groups, symptomatic or asymptomatic disease progression, and vaccinated or unvaccinated populations. Evaluation of the model forecasts for 2021 showed the expected behavior of epidemiological modeling: our model adequately predicts the situation up to 4 weeks in advance; the changes in epidemiologic dynamics due to the emergence of a new viral variant in the population or the introduction of new interventions cannot be predicted by the model, but when the new situation is incorporated into the model, the forecasts are again reliable. Comparison with ensemble forecasts for 2022 within the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub showed better performance of our model, which can be explained by a model architecture better adapted to the situation in Slovenia, in particular a refined structure for vaccination, and better parameter tuning enabled by the more comprehensive data for Slovenia. Our model proved to be flexible, agile, and, despite the limitations of its compartmental structure, heterogeneous enough to provide reasonable and prompt short-term forecasts and possible scenarios for various public health strategies. The model has been fully operational on a daily basis since April 2020, served as one of the models for decision making during the COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia, and is part of the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub. epidemiological modeling mathematical epidemiological models COVID-19 SEIR model Slovenia epidemiološko modeliranje matematični epidemiološki modeli COVID-19 model SEIR Slovenija true false true Angleški jezik Ni določen Članek v reviji 2022-10-11 12:48:58 2022-10-11 12:48:58 2022-10-12 03:52:41 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2022 0 0 12 str. Vol. 12, art. 16916 8 Oct. 2022 0000-00-00 Zaloznikova Objavljeno apc 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 2022-10-08 614:[519.2:616-036.22] 2045-2322 10.1038/s41598-022-21612-7 125101315 RAZ_Fosnaric_Miha_2022.pdf RAZ_Fosnaric_Miha_2022.pdf 1 8E3B1EE439CE74C73B1B8B59789D7A02 ae990908baff4ed55c89babf753a125ad34066ad8c287ac2b48b90d4d6fb307d 468da0c6-4952-11ed-9c94-00155dcfd717 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=163094 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-21612-7.pdf 0 56dcfa97-4953-11ed-9c94-00155dcfd717 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=163097 Zdravstvena fakulteta 0 0 0