20.500.12556/RUL-130555 Numerično modeliranje širjenja bolezni COVID - 19 delo diplomskega seminarja Numerical modeling of COVID-19 disease spread V tem delu diplomskega seminarja bomo govorili o temi, ki je nekako zaznamovala leti 2020 in 2021. Govorili bomo namreč o epidemiji koronavirusa COVID-19 in kako bi se širjenje le te dalo napovedati s pomočjo numeričnih modelov. Bolj natančno, spoznali bomo tri različne modele. Najprej se bomo seznanili s SIR modelom, ki spada med najbolj osnovne modele za napovedovanje širjenja nalezljivih bolezni. Pove nam, kako bi se epidemija širila, če ne bi vanjo nič posegali. Opisuje prehode ljudi med tremi stanji - dovzetni, okuženi in ozdravljeni. V nadaljevanju bomo spoznali razširjeni SIR model, kjer bomo upoštevali, da so se ob določenih trenutkih sprejeli določeni ukrepi za zajezitev širjenja virusa COVID-19. Videli bomo, kako je to vplivalo na sam potek širjenja epidemije. Tretji model, kateremu bomo namenili največ besed, pa je $\Theta$-SEIHRD model, ki opisuje prehajanje ljudi med kar 9-timi različnimi stanji ob upoštevanju različnih ukrepov za zajezitev širjenja virusa COVID-19. Dodatna stanja prinesejo več enačb in parametrov, ki jih je potrebno določiti, kar pa se izkaže za težak problem, saj bomo videli, da so rezultati zelo odvisni od natančnosti nastavljenih parametrov. In this seminar we consider a topic that somehow marked the years 2020 and 2021. Namely, we talk about the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic and how its spread could be predicted with the help of various numerical models. More precisely, we get to know three different models. First, we describe the SIR model, which is one of the most basic models for predicting the spread of infectious diseases. It tells us how the epidemic would spread if nothing would be done about it. It describes the transitions of people between three conditions - susceptible, infected and cured. In the following, we present the extended SIR model, where we take into account that certain measures are taken at certain moments to curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus. We show how this affects the very course of the spread of the epidemic. The third model, to which we devote most words, is the $\Theta$-SEIHRD model, which describes the transition of people between 9 different conditions, taking into account various measures to curb the spread of the virus. Here we show that additional conditions bring more equations and parameters that need to be determined, which turns out to be a difficult problem as the results are highly dependent on the accuracy of the chosen parameters. Runge-Kutta metoda epidemija COVID-19 numerična simulacija SIR model $\Theta$-SEIHRD model Runge-Kutta method coronavirus epidemic COVID-19 numerical simulation SIR model $\Theta$-SEIHRD model true false false Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Delo diplomskega seminarja/zaključno seminarsko delo/naloga 2021-09-16 08:15:23 2021-09-16 08:15:26 2024-05-29 13:14:49 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2021 0 0 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 519.6 120217 76699395 3251.pdf 3251.pdf 1 B91E93563F79860D8D4FEA295CA4AD0D 0fd73e061bc7a488d9ab1286bf0aeee829ec3f4860a084bf4f9411e8abdc5bdb 3adf8431-16b5-11ec-a523-00155dcfd717 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=147682 Fakulteta za matematiko in fiziko 0 0 0