20.500.12556/RUL-129208 Nadomestljivost človeka v delovnem procesu: preseganje tehnološkega determinizma preseganje tehnološkega determinizma The substitutability of people in the work process: overcoming technological determinism diplomsko delo Tehnološke spremembe že vsaj dve stoletji povzročajo zaskrbljenost zaradi možnosti obsežne tehnološke brezposelnosti. Namen pričujočega diplomskega dela je oblikovati lastno oceno o učinkih prihodnje avtomatizacije na zaposlovanje v Sloveniji. Na podlagi preučitve obstoječe literature, predstavimo nekatere primere tehnološkega pesimizma v družboslovju in ključne trende, ki so zaznamovali trg dela, od začetka računalniške dobe naprej. Podrobneje preučimo neenakost posledic tehnoloških sprememb glede na znanje in rutinskost. Preden se obrnemo k oblikovanju ocene o učinkih avtomatizacije na zaposlovanje v Sloveniji, pa pretehtamo nekatere razloge, ki takšno napovedovanje bodočih trendov že v izhodišču otežujejo. Število ogroženih delovnih mest v Sloveniji ocenimo tako, da na slovenski trg dela prenesemo verjetnosti avtomatizacije posameznih poklicev, kot sta jih določila Frey in Osborne. Ugotavljamo, da za 44,6% delovnih mest v Sloveniji obstaja visoka verjetnost avtomatizacije v naslednjem desetletju ali dveh. A opozarjamo, da moramo biti pri interpretaciji te številke pazljivi, saj ne napoveduje nujno izgube delovnih mest na agregatni ravni. V povezavi s tem obravnavamo možnost, da je število ogroženih delovnih mest v Sloveniji dejansko bistveno nižje, ter preučimo nekatere dejavnike, ki bi lahko vplivali na tempo in obseg avtomatizacije v prihodnosti, tudi če bo ustrezna tehnologija postala na voljo. Technological changes have long caused anxiety over the possibility of large-scale technological unemployment. The aim of this diploma thesis is to form our own assessment of the possible effects of future automation on employment in Slovenia. The existing literature on the effects of automation was carefully considered, and some past examples of technological anxiety amongst social scientists are presented. Additionally, key trends that have marked the labour market since the beginning of the computer era are examined. Specifically, we examine skill-biased and routine-biased technological change in more detail. Before turning to our own assessment of the effects of automation on employment in Slovenia, we discuss why making such assessments is difficult in the first place. We estimate the number of jobs at risk in Slovenia by applying the probabilities of computerization for different occupations as developed by Frey and Osborne to the Slovenian labour market. We find that 44.6% of jobs in Slovenia are highly likely to be automated in the next decade or two. However, we caution against interpreting this number as a prediction of aggregate employment loss. In relation to that, we discuss some reasons why the number of jobs at risk might actually be significantly lower, as well as examine some factors that may influence the pace and scope of future automation even if the technology itself does become available. avtomatizacija tehnološka brezposelnost Freyeva in Osbornova metoda znanje rutinskost automation technological unemployment Frey and Osborne’s method skill routine true true false [N. Blažič] Slovenski jezik Angleški jezik Diplomsko delo/naloga 2021-08-29 08:30:04 2021-08-29 08:30:07 2022-09-08 04:07:15 0000-00-00 00:00:00 2021 0 Ljubljana 0 Ljubljana 42 str. 0000-00-00 NiDoloceno NiDoloceno NiDoloceno 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 0000-00-00 005.591.6(497.4)(043.2) 129515 79684867 4817.pdf 4817.pdf 1 ABF9C0876CB86690BBAF64DCB32E8CFB b1c25665c377aa7a5635b7ce2fee1ce414a325bfe9c5b229579cf6f662af5d0a 52eb0869-0892-11ec-a523-00155dcfd717 https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/Dokument.php?lang=slv&id=146156 Fakulteta za družbene vede 0 0 0