Assessing the role of rainfall and antecedent soil moisture conditions on soil moisture increaseVialette, Elisa (Avtor) Zabret, Katarina (Avtor) soil moistureprecipitationantecedent conditionsdecision treesrandom forestsSoil moisture plays an important role in regulating natural processes, including water movement in the hydrological cycle. One of the main factors affecting soil moisture wetting and drying patterns is precipitation, but the response of soil moisture depends not only on its characteristics but also on other indicators such as soil depth, soil water-retention properties, land cover, and land use. These indicators determine the dynamics of the increase in soil moisture, which does not usually follow the dynamics of measured precipitation. In order to evaluate the rate of soil moisture response to rainfall input, as well as the influence of rainfall indicators and previous soil moisture conditions on the increase, we applied a decision tree model and a random forest model. Data collected during two years of measurements at three different depths in a grassy area of a small park in Ljubljana were considered. The increase in soil moisture at depths of 16 cm and 51 cm is mainly determined by the maximum 20-minute intensity recorded in the period of 6 hours before the increase. In deeper layers (74 cm), however, the response is determined by the previous moisture conditions at least 24 hours earlier or by precipitation in the previous 7 days.20262026-10-08 12:05:23Članek v reviji189524UDK: 004.85:556.12(497.451.1)ISSN pri članku: 0352-3551DOI: 10.15292/acta.hydro.2026.01COBISS_ID: 294219011sl