Assessing the long-term feasibility of net-zero energy houses in Slovenia : impacts of climate scenarios, roof design, and technological progress

Pajek, Luka (avtor), Fernandes, Marco S. (avtor), Rodrigues, Eugenio (avtor)

This study assesses the long-term viability of high-performance detached houses in Slovenia as net-zero energy buildings (NZEBs) under future climate change. Using a bottom-up approach, over one million energy models—calibrated against a sample of 78 real houses—were simulated across 12 Slovenian cities. The analysis integrated future climate projections from a 20-model ensemble (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) with scenarios for technological advancements in HVAC and photovoltaic (PV) systems. Our findings demonstrate that, under optimistic technology development scenarios, projected efficiency gains significantly outweigh the climate-driven rise in cooling demand. Specifically, the solar-ready roof area required to achieve winter energy balance is projected to decrease by a factor of up to 6.5 by 2080, making long-term NZEB status attainable. However, achieving a year-round energy balance remains a critical challenge, particularly during winter in colder regions, where gable roofs perform poorly for PV generation compared to pitched or flat roofs. The results highlight that roof design is a decisive factor for NZEB feasibility. We conclude that realizing Slovenia's NZEB potential requires a shift away from restrictive, one-size-fits-all urban planning guidelines towards more flexible, site-specific design frameworks that optimize on-site renewable energy generation.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: climate change, net-zero energy building, renewable energy, detached house, technology development
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: FGG - Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
• Status publikacije: Objavljeno
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Leto izida: 2026
• Št. strani: 18 str.
• Številčenje: Vol. 261, art. 125315
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-178471
• UDK: 502.174.3:502.21:551.583(497.4)
• ISSN pri članku: 1879-0682
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2026.125315
• COBISS.SI-ID: 266449411
• Datum objave v RUL: 28.01.2026

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: Renewable energy
• Skrajšan naslov: Renew. energy
• Založnik: Elsevier
• ISSN: 1879-0682
• COBISS.SI-ID: 527034905

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: To je standardna licenca Creative Commons, ki daje uporabnikom največ možnosti za nadaljnjo uporabo dela, pri čemer morajo navesti avtorja.

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: podnebne spremembe, neto nič-energijska stavba, obnovljivi viri energije, enostanovanjska hiša, razvoj tehnologije

Projekti

• Financer: ARIS - Javna agencija za znanstvenoraziskovalno in inovacijsko dejavnost Republike Slovenije
• Številka projekta: P2-0158
• Naslov: Gradbene konstrukcije in gradbena fizika