Extended compartmental model for modeling COVID‑19 epidemic in Slovenia

Fošnarič, Miha (avtor), Kamenšek, Tina (avtor), Žganec Gros, Jerneja (avtor), Žibert, Janez (avtor)

In the absence of a systematic approach to epidemiological modeling in Slovenia, various isolated mathematical epidemiological models emerged shortly after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. We present an epidemiological model adapted to the COVID-19 situation in Slovenia. The standard SEIR model was extended to distinguish between age groups, symptomatic or asymptomatic disease progression, and vaccinated or unvaccinated populations. Evaluation of the model forecasts for 2021 showed the expected behavior of epidemiological modeling: our model adequately predicts the situation up to 4 weeks in advance; the changes in epidemiologic dynamics due to the emergence of a new viral variant in the population or the introduction of new interventions cannot be predicted by the model, but when the new situation is incorporated into the model, the forecasts are again reliable. Comparison with ensemble forecasts for 2022 within the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub showed better performance of our model, which can be explained by a model architecture better adapted to the situation in Slovenia, in particular a refined structure for vaccination, and better parameter tuning enabled by the more comprehensive data for Slovenia. Our model proved to be flexible, agile, and, despite the limitations of its compartmental structure, heterogeneous enough to provide reasonable and prompt short-term forecasts and possible scenarios for various public health strategies. The model has been fully operational on a daily basis since April 2020, served as one of the models for decision making during the COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia, and is part of the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: epidemiological modeling, mathematical epidemiological models, COVID-19, SEIR model, Slovenia
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: ZF - Zdravstvena fakulteta
• Status publikacije: Objavljeno
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Datum objave: 08.10.2022
• Leto izida: 2022
• Št. strani: 12 str.
• Številčenje: Vol. 12, art. 16916
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-141913
• UDK: 614:[519.2:616-036.22]
• ISSN pri članku: 2045-2322
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-21612-7
• COBISS.SI-ID: 125101315
• Datum objave v RUL: 11.10.2022

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: Scientific reports
• Skrajšan naslov: Sci. rep.
• Založnik: Nature Publishing Group
• ISSN: 2045-2322
• COBISS.SI-ID: 18727432

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: To je standardna licenca Creative Commons, ki daje uporabnikom največ možnosti za nadaljnjo uporabo dela, pri čemer morajo navesti avtorja.

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Ni določen
• Ključne besede: epidemiološko modeliranje, matematični epidemiološki modeli, COVID-19, model SEIR, Slovenija

Projekti

• Financer: ARRS - Agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije
• Številka projekta: P2-0250-2018
• Naslov: Metrologija in biometrični sistemi