Synthetic Control Method : a tool for comparative case studies in economic history

Gilchrist, David J. (avtor), Emery, Thomas (avtor), Garoupa, Nuno (avtor), Spruk, Rok (avtor)

The Synthetic Control Method (SCM) has become a widely used tool in both identifying and estimating the causal impact of policies, shocks, and interventions of interest on economic and social outcomes. The technique has become particularly popular in estimating the effect of these shocks on a single treated unit. As a transparent and data-driven statistical technique, the goal of the SCM is to construct an artificial control group for the treated unit that has similar pretreatment characteristics but has not undergone the treatment itself thus developing a plausible counterfactual against which impacts resulting from structural changes can be evaluated as part of a historical investigation. The method works well when the control group balances pre-intervention outcomes and auxiliary covariates as much as possible. In spite of its widespread adoption, the use of the SCM in comparative economic history has lagged behind other areas of economics. In this article, we critically review the properties of the SCM and discuss the necessary conditions for a plausible application of the technique to comparative economic history in support of research designed to answer some of the long-running historical questions and demonstrate the potential to use SCM in comparative economic history studies by estimating the impact of the oil discovery in the 1920s on Venezuela's long-term economic growth.

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Ključne besede: comparative economics, economic history, Synthetic Control Method
• Vrsta gradiva: Članek v reviji
• Tipologija: 1.01 - Izvirni znanstveni članek
• Organizacija: EF - Ekonomska fakulteta
• Status publikacije: V tisku
• Različica publikacije: Objavljena publikacija
• Leto izida: 2022
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-135457
• UDK: 330.4
• ISSN pri članku: 0950-0804
• DOI: 10.1111/joes.12493
• COBISS.SI-ID: 97140483
• Datum objave v RUL: 15.03.2022

Gradivo je del revije

• Naslov: Journal of economic surveys
• Skrajšan naslov: J. econ. surv.
• Založnik: Wiley-Blackwell
• ISSN: 0950-0804
• COBISS.SI-ID: 1027349

Licence

• Licenca: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Priznanje avtorstva-Nekomercialno-Brez predelav 4.0 Mednarodna
• Povezava: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.sl
• Opis: Najbolj omejujoča licenca Creative Commons. Uporabniki lahko prenesejo in delijo delo v nekomercialne namene in ga ne smejo uporabiti za nobene druge namene.
• Začetek licenciranja: 11.02.2022