Časovna in prostorska analiza največjih hidroloških suš v Sloveniji : magistrsko delo

Cunja, Jan (avtor), Šraj, Mojca (mentor), Kobold, Mira (komentor)

Suša je naravni pojav, ki se zaradi podnebnih sprememb v zadnjem obdobju pojavlja vedno pogosteje in prizadene različna območja po skoraj celem svetu. Pomanjkanje padavin in njihova neenakomerna porazdelitev povzroča težave tudi v Sloveniji. Na območju Slovenije v preteklosti ni bilo obsežnejših analiz hidrološke suše, čeprav povzroča škodo v energetiki, vodooskrbi, industriji in turizmu. Glavni namen magistrske naloge je bila zato izdelava obsežnejše časovne in prostorske analiza hidrološke suše v Sloveniji. V časovno in prostorsko analizo največjih hidroloških suš v Sloveniji je bilo vključenih 44 vodomernih postaj, ki zagotavljajo dobro geografsko pokritost območja Slovenije in imajo dostopne nize podatkov brez daljših izpadov beleženja. Izračunani so bili kazalniki nizkih pretokov za celoten niz podatkov posameznih postaj, nato pa so bila na podlagi rezultatov identificirana leta z največjimi hidrološkimi sušami. Ker je večini izbranih postaj skupno obdobje beleženja 1960–2016, je bila za to obdobje izvedena še analiza sušnih dogodkov v identificiranih sušnih letih 1993, 2003, 2011 in 2012. V prvem delu analiz sta bili dodani še leti 1971 in 1989. Prvi del analiz obsega primerjavo volumnov in trajanj sušnih deficitov izračunanih po metodi praga z izbiro različnih vrednosti pragov za tri izbrane vodomerne postaje. V drugem delu analiz je opisan način identifikacije najbolj sušnih let na primeru diagrama najmanjših letnih pretokov MAM(n) različnih trajanj. V nadaljevanju so izračunani in prikazani specifični najmanjši letni pretoki MAM(180) za 180-dnevno drseče povprečje in specifični najmanjši pretoki drsečega povprečja za 180 dni v avgustu MAM(180)avg ter MAM(n)avg trajanj 7, 30, 180 in 360 dni za leto 1993. Sledijo izračuni standardiziranih volumnov in trajanj deficitov sušnih dogodkov ter njihovi grafični prikazi. Na podlagi opravljenih analiz in dosedanjih ugotovitev drugih avtorjev smo ugotovili, da je bilo po letu 1960 v Sloveniji najbolj sušno leto 2003, ko je suša prizadela predvsem severovzhodni del Slovenije. To območje je zajela nekoliko milejša suša tudi v letu 2012. Leta 1993 je bil najbolj sušno prizadet sever, vzhod in severovzhod države. Najmanj sušno od identificiranih sušnih let pa je bilo leto 2011, ko so sušni dogodki zajeli južni del Slovenije.

• Jezik: Slovenski jezik
• Ključne besede: Hidrološka suša, mali pretoki, srednji letni minimum, sušni prag, deficit pretoka.
• Vrsta gradiva: Magistrsko delo/naloga
• Tipologija: 2.09 - Magistrsko delo
• Organizacija: FGG - Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
• Založnik: [J. Cunja]
• Leto izida: 2019
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-106132
• UDK: 532.533:551.577.38(497.4)(043.3)
• COBISS.SI-ID: 8679521
• Datum objave v RUL: 31.01.2019

CUNJA, Jan, 2019, Časovna in prostorska analiza največjih hidroloških suš v Sloveniji : magistrsko delo [na spletu]. Magistrsko delo. J. Cunja. [Dostopano 21 april 2025]. Pridobljeno s: https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=slv&id=106132

Sekundarni jezik

• Jezik: Angleški jezik
• Naslov: Temporal and spatial analysis of the largest hydrological droughts in Slovenia : master thesis

Izvleček

Drought is a natural phenomenon that, in recent years, happens more and more frequently due to climate change and affects various regions almost all over the world. The lack of precipitation and its uneven distribution causes problems also in Slovenia. In the past, there has been no extensive analysis of hydrological drought in Slovenia even though it causes damage in energetics, water distribution, industry and tourism. The main objective of the master's thesis is therefore to provide a more extensive temporal and spatial analysis of hydrological droughts in Slovenia. In temporal and spatial analysis of the largest hydrological droughts in Slovenia, 44 gauging stations were included, to ensure good geographical coverage of the Slovenian territory. Included gauging stations have accessible hydrological data sets without longer gaps of missing data. First, low-flow indices were calculated for the entire data set for each gauging station and then, on the basis of those results, the years with the most severe hydrological droughts were identified. Since the majority of selected gauging stations have overlapping river flow recordings for the 1960–2016 period, analysis was carried out for this interval for drought events in identified years 1993, 2003, 2011 and 2012. The years 1971 and 1989 were added to the first part of the analyses. This first part deals with the comparison of volumes and durations of drought deficits calculated using the threshold method for different selected thresholds for three gauging stations. The second part of the analysis describes the method of identifying the most severe drought stricken years on the diagram of mean annual minima MAM(n) for different durations. Furthermore the specific mean annual minima MAM(180) for moving average of 180 days and specific mean annual minima for the 180-day duration for August MAM(180)avg were shown. In addition MAM(n)avg of 7-, 30-, 180- and 360-day durations for the year 1993 were presented. Lastly, calculations of standardized volumes and durations of drought deficits were executed and graphically presented. On the basis of executed analysis and previous findings of other authors we concluded that the year with the most severe drought after the 1960 was the year of 2003 when drought affected mainly north-eastern part of Slovenia. The same area was affected by a milder drought in 2012. In the year 1993, drought events were most severe in the northern, eastern and north-eastern part of the country. The least severe droughts were present in 2011 when drought events happened in the southern part of Slovenia.

• Ključne besede: Hydrological drought, low flows, mean annual minima, threshold level, streamflow deficit.